How much can I withdraw each year without running out?
Safe withdrawal rate calculator: the chance a withdrawal rate lasts your whole retirement across 5,000 simulated markets, next to what a steady return would allow.
CHANCE YOUR RATE LASTSFRAGILE
75%
In 5,000 simulated retirements at these inputs, a 4.0% withdrawal ($16,800 a year, in today’s dollars) lasted all 30 years in 3,734 of them. The highest rate that lasted in at least 85% of them was 3.5% ($14,700 a year).
A year at 4.0%
$16,800
Highest rate, 85% chance
3.5%
Steady returns: 4.0% lasts
All 30 yrs
Ceiling if returns were steady
5.48%
UNDERSTAND YOUR RESULT
How likely is each withdrawal rate to last 30 years?
3.0%$12,600 a year · $1,050 a month
93%
3.5%$14,700 a year · $1,225 a month
85%
4.0% (yours)$16,800 a year · $1,400 a month
75%
4.5%$18,900 a year · $1,575 a month
62%
5.0%$21,000 a year · $1,750 a month
49%
5.48% (steady-return ceiling)$23,016 a year · $1,918 a month
38%
6.0%$25,200 a year · $2,100 a month
27%
Of 5,000 simulated retirements, a 4.0% withdrawal lasted 30 years in 75%; 3.0% lasted in 93% and 6.0% in 27%. At 5.48%, the steady-return ceiling, 38% did.
How likely is your 4.0% to last, by retirement length?
20 years
96%
25 years
86%
30 years (yours)
75%
35 years
65%
40 years
55%
45 years
49%
50 years
44%
55 years
41%
60 years
38%
A 4.0% withdrawal lasted 20 years in 96% of 5,000 simulated retirements, 30 years in 75% and 40 years in 55%; for your 30 years it is 75%.
If returns never varied: your portfolio at 4.0%
Your withdrawal, steady returns (today’s dollars)Steady-return ceiling
If every year earned exactly 3.88% after inflation, $16,800 a year at 4.0% would leave $357,197 after 30 years, in today’s dollars; at the 5.48% steady-return ceiling the balance is down to $2,003 in year 30. Real returns vary from year to year, so this is a reference, not a forecast.
What moves the needle
Each row re-runs the calculation with one change. Click to apply.How it's computed
FORMULA
B(t) = (B(t−1) − W) × (1 + r(t)), t = 1 … N, W = portfolio × withdrawal rate (the same real dollars every year)
Simulation: r(t) ~ Normal(average return after inflation, swing from the stock / bond mix), capped at −50% and +80%; 5,000 seeded paths
Chance = paths with B(N) > 0 ÷ 5,000
Steady model: r = (1 + nominal return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1 every year; ceiling = the largest rate with B(N) > 0
- The average return is 7.0% before inflation and 3.0% inflation, which is 3.88% a year after inflation. The steady model earns exactly that every year. The simulation uses it as the average of its yearly returns, which swing by about ±12.0% for a 60/40 mix (stocks ±17%, bonds ±4.5%, blended in proportion, as if they moved together). Swings cost growth, so the middle simulated path compounds below the average. The average return does not change with the mix.
- Each of the 5,000 paths draws a fresh return every year, independently, capped between −50% and +80%. The draws are seeded, so the same inputs always give the same chance; with this many paths the percentage can differ by about a point from the true figure.
- The withdrawal is the same real dollars every year (it rises with inflation in nominal terms), taken at the start of the year before that year’s growth. Everything is in today’s dollars.
- The ceiling if returns were steady is searched to 0.01% and rounded down: it keeps a positive balance through year 30, and 0.01% more does not. It is the most a portfolio could pay if no year were bad.
- No taxes, fees, Social Security, pension or other income, and no change in spending with age or markets.
- The 4% rule of thumb is built from historical US market sequences (Bengen 1994; Cooley, Hubbard & Walz 1998), not from a steady or a random return, so it is a different number. The 85% line is a common planning convention, not a rule.
WORKED EXAMPLE · SAMPLE NUMBERS
$420,000 × 4.0% = $16,800 in year 1. If that year’s sampled return is −12%, the balance becomes ($420,000 − $16,800) × 0.88 = $354,816. Repeat for 30 years with a fresh draw each year; that is one path. Run 5,000: 3,734 finished above zero, so the chance is 3,734 ÷ 5,000 = 75%. If every year instead earned a steady 3.88%, $16,800 a year would leave $357,197 after 30 years.
SOURCES
[1]Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical DataBengen, Journal of Financial Planning, 1994
[2]Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is SustainableCooley, Hubbard & Walz (Trinity study), AAII Journal, 1998[3]An International Perspective on Safe Withdrawal Rates: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule?Pfau, Journal of Financial Planning, 2010[4]Why 50% Probability Of Success Is Actually A Viable Monte Carlo Retirement ProjectionTharp, Kitces.com, 2021[5]CPI-U, All Urban ConsumersU.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsHSBuilt by Hussain Sehorewala · checked against worked examples · Sep 29, 2026
Keep this number honest as your life changes.
Put it on your Money Map and it re-runs as you change the seven numbers. It stays in this browser, and the calculator stays free.
Questions about this result
The share of your starting portfolio you take out in year one and then keep spending as the same real dollars, so that the money lasts your whole retirement. The best-known rule of thumb is 4% for a 30-year retirement, drawn from US stock and bond history (Bengen 1994; the Trinity study). No rate is safe in every possible market, so this page shows the chance a rate lasts across 5,000 simulated markets and the highest rate that lasts in at least 85% of them.
It is a rule of thumb built from US history, and the future can differ. In the Trinity study a 4% first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation, lasted 30 years in 95% to 98% of the 1926–1995 periods for portfolios with 50% to 100% stocks. Pfau (2010) tested 17 developed countries and found it would have been riskier outside the US, and many planners use a lower rate for retirements longer than 30 years.
Two differences. The Trinity study replayed the actual US returns of 1926 to 1995, when stocks earned well above 3.9% a year after inflation; this page’s default is a more cautious 3.9% on average (7% less 3% inflation), drawn at random each year. At those defaults and a 60/40 mix, a 4% withdrawal lasts 30 years in about 75% of the simulated retirements. Raise the average return or lower the rate and the chance climbs quickly; the first chart shows by how much.
It is the highest rate that would last if every year earned exactly the same return, with no bad years; at the defaults that is 5.48%. Real returns rise and fall, and poor returns early in retirement do the most damage, so that same rate lasts in only about 38% of the simulated retirements. The steady-return figure is an upper limit, not a recommendation.
A longer retirement needs a lower rate. At the defaults, a 4% withdrawal lasts 20 years in about 96% of the simulated retirements, 30 years in about 75%, 40 years in about 55% and 50 years in about 44%. The second chart shows retirements of 20 to 60 years, and yours.
Inflation is: spending is held flat in today’s dollars, which means the dollar amount rises with prices, and the portfolio grows at the return after inflation, (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1; at 7% and 3% that is about 3.9% a year. Taxes and fees are not. Withdrawals from pre-tax accounts are taxed, so the amount you can spend is lower, and a 1% annual fee works like a 1-point lower return: lower the average return by the fee to see its effect.
THE LEDGER · 10 min5 Retirement Mistakes That Cost $100K+ (Part 3 of 3)
THE LEDGER · 28 min5 Retirement Mistakes That Cost $100K+ (Part 2 of 3)
GUIDE · $39The Retire-Early Playbook