Should I buy a home or keep renting if I might leave the US?
Compare the net worth of buying and of renting for every year you might sell or leave, after closing and selling costs, upkeep, and what the renter can invest.
RENT OR BUYRENTING COMES OUT AHEAD
$39,962
If you sold or left after 5 years, renting comes out $39,962 ahead: buying a $450,000 home with 20% down at 7.00% would leave you with $151,499 and renting at $2,400 a month would leave you with $191,461. Buying first pulls even if you stay 21 years.
Break-even
Year 21
Cash to buy
$103,500
Owning a month
$3,256
Renting a month
$2,400
UNDERSTAND YOUR RESULT
How far buying is ahead of or behind renting, by the year you leave
Buying minus renting (net worth)
Leaving after one year, buying is $40,736 behind renting; after 5 years, $39,962 behind renting; after 30 years, $77,197 ahead of renting. It first reaches even in year 21. Closing and selling costs are paid whether you stay a year or twenty, which is why leaving early is costly for a buyer.
Net worth of each route if you leave in a given year
| Leave after | Home value | Buying | Renting | Buying ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $463,500 | $79,347 | $120,083 | −$40,736 |
| Year 2 | $477,405 | $96,339 | $137,148 | −$40,809 |
| Year 3 | $491,727 | $114,006 | $154,716 | −$40,710 |
| Year 5 (yours) | $521,673 | $151,499 | $191,461 | −$39,962 |
| Year 7 | $553,443 | $192,106 | $230,521 | −$38,415 |
| Year 10 | $604,762 | $259,552 | $293,962 | −$34,410 |
| Year 15 | $701,085 | $392,552 | $414,917 | −$22,364 |
| Year 20 | $812,750 | $568,740 | $570,536 | −$1,796 |
| Year 30 | $1,092,268 | $1,172,125 | $1,094,928 | $77,197 |
Buying is the home’s value less the selling cost and the loan you still owe, plus any investments after tax; renting is the invested cash after tax. A negative last column means renting is ahead. At year 5 the home is worth $521,673 and you still owe $338,874.
Where the money goes through year 5
| Spending | Buying | Renting |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage interest | $122,579 | — |
| Property tax, insurance, upkeep | $54,215 | — |
| Closing costs | $13,500 | — |
| Selling costs | $31,300 | — |
| Rent | — | $152,903 |
| Not recovered | $221,594 | $152,903 |
Through year 5, buying spends $221,594 that does not come back, against $152,903 of rent. The $21,126 of principal you repay is equity, not a cost, and the growth on each side’s investments is in the net worth figures rather than here.
What moves the needle
Each row re-runs the calculation with one change. Click to apply.How it's computed
FORMULA
Payment = loan × r ÷ (1 − (1 + r)^−n), with r = rate ÷ 12 and n the months in the term
Buying outlay a month = payment + property tax + insurance + maintenance + HOA + mortgage insurance (only under 20% down and while the loan is above 80% of the price)
Renting outlay a month = rent, stepping up once a year
Each month whoever pays less invests the difference; the renter also invests the down payment and closing costs on day one
Buying net worth = home value × (1 − selling cost) − loan balance + investments after tax; renting net worth = investments after tax
- Both routes start with the same cash and spend the same amount every month, so the comparison is fair: the difference is invested by whichever side pays less. The $103,500 to buy (down payment and closing costs) is invested by the renter.
- The home grows 3.0% a year and rent 3.0% a year; investments earn a steady 7.0% a year in ordinary dollars, taxed at 15% on the growth at the end. Real markets are not steady, and neither growth rate is a forecast.
- Property tax and maintenance are shares of the home’s value each year; insurance grows 3% a year with inflation. Selling costs of 6.0% are taken from the sale price in whichever year you leave.
- The mortgage interest deduction is not counted. It helps only if you itemize, and with the 2026 standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 joint) many owners do not. The home-sale exclusion (up to $250,000 of gain, $500,000 joint, if you owned and lived there 24 of the last 5 years) is not counted either, so any tax on a larger gain is missing.
- If you have left the US and are treated as a foreign person when you sell, the buyer generally must withhold 15% of the sale price (IRS rules on foreign sellers of US real property). The page does not model that or the tax on the sale, so talk to a tax professional before you rely on the numbers.
- Renting the home out when you leave, a loan on a temporary visa (lenders differ on what they accept), moving costs, and renter’s insurance are not modelled. The price, rent and rates shown are examples until you replace them with real quotes.
WORKED EXAMPLE · SAMPLE NUMBERS
Loan: $450,000 less 20% down is $360,000, $2,395 a month at 7.00% for 30 years. Cash to buy: $103,500 (down payment plus 3.00% closing costs). In year 1, owning costs $3,256 a month with tax, insurance and upkeep, against $2,400 of rent. After 5 years the home is worth $521,673; selling at 6.0% costs $31,300, and paying off $338,874 leaves $151,499 before any investments. Buying ends at $151,499 and renting at $191,461, a difference of −$39,962.
SOURCES
[1]Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)Freddie Mac[2]Topic no. 701, Sale of your home ($250,000/$500,000 home sale tax exclusion)Internal Revenue Service[3]FIRPTA withholding (foreign persons selling U.S. real property)Internal Revenue Service[4]Buying a houseConsumer Financial Protection BureauHSBuilt by Hussain Sehorewala · checked against worked examples · Sep 29, 2026
Keep this number honest as your life changes.
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Questions about this result
It depends mostly on how long you stay. Buying costs a lot up front and again when you sell, so leaving early usually favors renting. On the example on this page, a $450,000 home with 20% down at 7%, against $2,400 rent, renting comes out $39,962 ahead if you leave after 5 years, and buying does not catch up until you stay 21 years.
Until the equity and price growth you keep outweigh the closing costs, the selling costs and the interest you pay. The break-even year on this page moves a lot with the inputs: on the example it is year 21, but at a 4% rate with home prices growing 5% a year it is year 3. Change the rate, the price growth and the rent to see where it lands for you.
Because most of the cost is paid on the way in and on the way out. On the example, closing costs are $13,500 and selling after one year would cost about $27,810, so a buyer who leaves after a year is roughly $40,736 behind a renter who invested the same cash.
No. The interest deduction only helps if you itemize, and the 2026 standard deduction is $16,100 for a single filer and $32,200 for a married couple filing jointly, so many owners get no benefit. The exclusion of up to $250,000 of gain ($500,000 joint) on a main home you owned and lived in for 24 of the last 5 years would help a buyer with a large gain, and it is not counted here.
This page assumes you sell in the year you leave. Renting the home out is not modelled. If you sell as a foreign person, the buyer generally has to withhold 15% of the sale price under IRS rules for foreign sellers of US real property, which is separate from the tax you owe. Talk to a tax professional before you decide.
No, and it does not guess. It shows what happens for every year you might sell or leave, so you can read the row that matches your plans and see how much a change of plan would cost.
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