Should I move back home or stay in the US?
Compare the FIRE number and the date you reach it if you stay in the US against retiring abroad, priced at your home country’s household prices, with US withholding on pre-tax accounts counted.
US withholding on those withdrawals
The statutory rate for a nonresident alien. A treaty can lower it: India’s treaty protects periodic pension payments in its Article 20, but whether your withdrawals qualify is not confirmed here. Ask the plan.
What life at home costs, against the national average
Costs 1.5 times the national average. A planning assumption you set, not a measured cost.
When I move
You keep working and saving in the US at today’s pace until your portfolio reaches the number abroad, then move.
Withdrawal rate
The 4% rule (Bengen 1994; Trinity study) comes from 30-year US history, before currency or foreign-tax risk.
YEARS SOONER IF YOU GO HOME
9.5years
At India’s national-average prices (24% of the US level), spending that costs $60,000 in the US costs about $14,268 a year, or $21,402 at 1.5 times that average. Staying needs $1,500,000; going home needs $629,471 after 30% US withholding on the 50% of your portfolio in US pre-tax accounts ($535,050 before it). If you keep saving $4,300 a month in the US and move once you reach that number, you reach it in about 3.0 years (around age 37), against 12.5 years (around age 47) if you stay: 9.5 years sooner. Tax in the country you move to, healthcare and currency moves are not modeled, and a big-city lifestyle can cost more: see the price check below.
Number if you stay
$1.50M
Number if you go home
$629k
Before US withholding
$535k
Years if you go home
3.0
UNDERSTAND YOUR RESULT
When each path gets there
Portfolio (today’s dollars)India numberUS number
At 3.9% a year after inflation, the portfolio reaches the $629k India number after 3.0 years. It reaches the $1.50M US number after 12.5 years.
What if home costs more than the national average?
Stay in the US12.5 years to FI
12.5 yrs
Go home, at the national average$14,268 a year · already covered
0.0 yrs
Go home, 1.5× the average$21,402 a year
3.0 yrs
Go home, 2× the average$28,536 a year
5.6 yrs
The price level is a national average, and a US-style lifestyle in a big city, with imported goods, private schooling or international health cover, can cost more. At the average, going home needs less than you have today; at 1.5 times the average ($21,402 a year) it takes 3.0 years, and at 2 times ($28,536 a year) it takes 5.6 years; staying takes 12.5 years.
The number you need at each withdrawal rate
Stay in the USGo home to India
3.0%
$2.00M
$839k
3.5%
$1.71M
$719k
4.0% (yours)
$1.50M
$629k
4.5%
$1.33M
$560k
At your 4.0% withdrawal rate, staying needs $1,500,000 and going home to India needs $629,471, $870,529 less, counting 30% US withholding on the pre-tax share. Going home needs 42% of the US number at every rate shown, because the same price level, city factor and withholding apply to each.
Could the US exit tax apply if you give up citizenship or a green card?
| Test | The line for 2026 | Your answer | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| US status | Citizen, or green card 8+ years | Visa or other | Does not apply |
The US exit tax (IRC §877A) reaches only US citizens who give up citizenship and green-card holders who held the card in at least 8 of the last 15 tax years. On a visa it does not apply. If you hold a green card, or expect to get one before you leave, pick it above: the years on it count.
What moves the needle
Each row re-runs the calculation with one change. Click to apply.How it's computed
FORMULA
Spending abroad = spending at US prices × price level × your city factor (price level = private-consumption PPP ÷ official exchange rate, World Bank 2024)
Number abroad = spending abroad ÷ (1 − pre-tax share × withholding rate) ÷ withdrawal rate
n* = smallest month n with P·(1+r)ⁿ + S·((1+r)ⁿ − 1) ÷ r ≥ number (P invested today, S saved a month, r the monthly real return)
Years sooner = (months staying − months going home) ÷ 12
- Price level: India is 24% of the US household price level in the World Bank’s 2024 data (multiplier 0.2378). It prices an average national basket, not your lifestyle or a city; you set 1.5 times the average. That is a planning assumption, and the price check shows what a pricier home does.
- The same portfolio, return and withdrawal rate in both paths; only the price of what you spend (and, if you move now, what you save) differs. Returns are real (after inflation), so everything is in today’s dollars.
- You keep working and saving $4,300 a month in the US until the portfolio reaches the number abroad, then move; the date is when that happens.
- US withholding: 50% of the portfolio sits in US pre-tax accounts, and a nonresident alien is withheld on at 30% (30% is the statutory default, IRC §1441; a treaty may lower it), so each withdrawal is grossed up by 1 ÷ (1 − 0.50 × 0.30). That treats the withholding as the cost: part of it may come back when you file Form 1040-NR, because pension income from your US work is generally taxed at graduated rates (IRS Publication 519), and this page does not estimate that. Pre-tax accounts are assumed to be drawn without the 10% early-withdrawal penalty (from 59½, or under an exception such as 72(t) payments). Roth and taxable holdings are treated as untaxed at payout (US dividends paid to a nonresident carry their own withholding, not modeled). The staying path carries no US tax on its withdrawals, so the comparison leans against going home on this point.
- Not modeled: tax in the country you move to (which can tax the same withdrawals), other US tax, healthcare, currency moves and local inflation (spending is held flat in today’s dollars), moving and visa costs, and US estate tax on US assets held by a nonresident. The exit-tax check is a screen, not a tax calculation.
- The search stops at 60 years; beyond that a path shows as unreachable.
WORKED EXAMPLE · SAMPLE NUMBERS
Staying: $60,000 ÷ 4.0% = $1,500,000, reached in month 150 (12.5 years). Going home to India: $60,000 × 0.2378 × 1.5 = $21,402 a year. With 50% of the portfolio in US pre-tax accounts, 30% withholding takes 15% of each withdrawal, so $21,402 ÷ (1 − 0.15) = $25,178.82 has to be withdrawn. $25,178.82 ÷ 4.0% = $629,471 ($535,050 before withholding), reached in month 36 (3.0 years). Gap: 150 − 36 = 114 months = 9.5 years sooner at home. The number is $870,529 smaller.
SOURCES
[1]PPP conversion factor, private consumption (LCU per international $)World Bank Open Data, indicator PA.NUS.PRVT.PP (2024)[2]Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average)IMF International Financial Statistics via World Bank Open Data, indicator PA.NUS.FCRF (2024)[3]NRA withholdingInternal Revenue Service[4]Expatriation tax, and Instructions for Form 8854Internal Revenue Service[5]Rev. Proc. 2025-32, sections 4.37 and 4.38: 2026 expatriation amountsInternal Revenue ServiceHSBuilt by Hussain Sehorewala · checked against worked examples · Sep 29, 2026
Keep this number honest as your life changes.
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Questions about this result
That depends on far more than money, but the money question has a clear shape: how much sooner could you stop working, and how big a portfolio would you need? This calculator prices your current spending at your home country’s household prices, adds the US withholding a nonresident faces on pre-tax retirement accounts, and compares both paths on the same portfolio, return and withdrawal rate. It shows what the numbers say at your inputs. It does not decide for you.
The portfolio at which your chosen withdrawal rate covers a year of spending where you will live: your US-price spending scaled by the country’s price level and by how far above the national average you expect to live, divided by the withdrawal rate. For expat FIRE the number is then grossed up for the share of your portfolio that a nonresident is withheld on at 30%. A cheaper country lowers the number. It does not make the plan any safer.
The 4% rule comes from US market history and US-dollar spending (Bengen 1994; the Trinity study). Living abroad adds risks it did not test: currency moves against your spending, local inflation and tax on withdrawals. That is why this page offers 3.0% and 3.5% as well; the Monte Carlo simulator tests a rate against thousands of market paths.
Withdrawals from a US 401(k) or traditional IRA paid to a nonresident alien face 30% US withholding unless a tax treaty lowers it, and you claim a treaty rate with Form W-8BEN. If half your portfolio sits in those accounts, 15% of every withdrawal is withheld, so you need about 18% more (1 ÷ 0.85) to net the same spending. Some of that may come back when you file Form 1040-NR, since pension income from your US work is generally taxed at graduated rates, but you need the cash first. Withholding is not the end of it: the country where you live can also tax the same money under its own rules, and a treaty decides which country taxes first. This page models the US withholding only.
Only if you are a covered expatriate, and moving abroad does not by itself trigger it. The exit tax (IRC §877A) applies to US citizens who give up citizenship and to green-card holders who held the card in at least 8 of the last 15 tax years, when they end that status. In 2026 you are a covered expatriate if any one of these holds: your average yearly US income tax over the previous five years is more than $211,000, your net worth is $2,000,000 or more on the day you give it up, or you cannot certify on Form 8854 that you filed and paid all US taxes for those five years. A covered expatriate is taxed as if their worldwide property were sold the day before, on the gain above $910,000. Until the green card is formally given up, or you claim residence in a treaty country on Forms 8833 and 8854, you stay inside the US tax system. Narrow exceptions exist for dual citizens from birth and for minors. This page only screens; it does not calculate the tax.
It multiplies your US-price spending by the World Bank’s 2024 household price level for the country (private-consumption PPP divided by the official exchange rate), then by the city factor you choose. That ratio prices an average household basket for the whole country, so it is a national average, not a budget for a US-style lifestyle in a particular city, which is why the page tests 1.5 and 2 times the average. Only countries with a sourced price level are listed; we do not estimate one for a country that is not. Left out: tax in either country beyond the US withholding on pre-tax accounts, healthcare, currency moves and local inflation (a dollar portfolio funding spending in rupees, baht or reais is exposed to both), moving and visa costs, and US estate tax on US assets held by a nonresident.
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